灾害救援中基于民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配问题研究

为有效解决在保证高效完成救援任务的同时考虑受灾民众行为，进而提高灾民对救援处置效果的满意度问题，结合行为运筹学相关理论和不公平厌恶理论，提出民众对于应急物资到达时间的风险感知度量模型，以及民众对于所得到的应急物资数量的公平满意度度量模型，构建基于灾民心理感知的应急物资多阶段调度模型，解决应急物资到达时间风险感知、物资分发数量公平满意度等多目标下的调配决策问题；设计基于蚁群优化思想的求解算法。研究结果表明:通过实例分析对比验证了模型在提升灾区民众对于应急物资分发策略满意度方面的有效性。     

Boosting freshwater fish conservation with high-resolution distribution mapping across a large territory

The lack of high-resolution distribution maps for freshwater species across large extents fundamentally challenges biodiversity conservation worldwide. We devised a simple framework to delineate the distributions of freshwater fishes in a high-resolution drainage map based on stacked species distribution models and expert information. We applied this framework to the entire Chinese freshwater fish fauna (>1600 species) to examine high-resolution biodiversity patterns and reveal potential conflicts between freshwater biodiversity and anthropogenic disturbances. The correlations between spatial patterns of biodiversity facets (species richness, endemicity, and phylogenetic diversity) were all significant (r = 0.43–0.98, p < 0.001). Areas with high values of different biodiversity facets overlapped with anthropogenic disturbances. Existing protected areas (PAs), covering 22% of China's territory, protected 25–29% of fish habitats, 16–23% of species, and 30–31% of priority conservation areas. Moreover, 6–21% of the species were completely unprotected. These results suggest the need for extending the network of PAs to ensure the conservation of China's freshwater fishes and the goods and services they provide. Specifically, middle to low reaches of large rivers and their associated lakes from northeast to southwest China hosted the most diverse species assemblages and thus should be the target of future expansions of the network of PAs. More generally, our framework, which can be used to draw high-resolution freshwater biodiversity maps combining species occurrence data and expert knowledge on species distribution, provides an efficient way to design PAs regardless of the ecosystem, taxonomic group, or region considered.     

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

大王滩水库秋季浮游植物分布初探

2011年秋季对大王滩水库开展了藻类采样监测,分别从藻类定性和定量分析入手,分析了种类组成与数量的分布特征,并进行了富营养化评价。监测表明秋季大王滩水库主要是蓝藻门的细鞘丝藻占优势。垂直分布上,表层浮游植物密度大大高于底层密度,从藻类生物量看和从优势种看,大王滩水库秋季可判定为富营养状态。     

冬季黄东海颗粒有机碳的时空分布特征

根据2007年1～2月对黄东海大面调查的资料,分析研究了黄东海颗粒有机碳(POC)的时空分布特征。结果表明,冬季黄东海POC的浓度范围是2.49～1 658.96μg/L,平均浓度为125.88μg/L。在垂直方向上,POC由上而下随着水深的增加浓度逐渐降低,到底层后浓度又升高。在平面分布上,POC整体上呈现西部近岸浓度较高、东部离岸浓度较低的特点;POC的高值区集中在浙江近岸海区,特别是浙江舟山群岛南部近海,POC浓度非常高,这是受陆源输入和沉积物再悬浮的共同作用。在周日变化上,受潮汐作用和海区生物活动的影响,东海陆架中部海域除底层以外,其它各层POC在午后、傍晚、凌晨出现浓度的高峰值,而西南海域,除了底层外,其它各层均表现出全日周期变化。     

中国主要水系沉积物中重金属分布特征及来源分析

本文简要综述了中国主要水系沉积物中重金属(Cd、As、Zn、Pb、Cu、Hg、Cr)的分布特征,系统讨论了区域城市化进程对水环境的影响,分析了重金属污染特征及其来源,并采用潜在生态风险指数法评价了中国主要水系沉积物中重金属的潜在生态危害系数和危害指数。结果显示,中国主要水系表层沉积物中重金属的复合污染状况评价结果是:Cd>Hg>Pb>As>Zn>Cr>Cu。其中,Cd元素的Eir值介于41.25～1755.00之间,属于轻微到极强生态危害,其中大部分样点属于强至极强生态危害。Hg元素的Eir值介于115.29～470.83之间,属于强到极强生态危害,其中大部分样点属于很强至极强生态危害。地区对比而言,综合污染状况以海河和珠江较为显著,长江污染最轻。就其来源来讲,海河流域和珠江流域污染来源主要为工业污染,长江和黄河主要是流域岩石风化和土壤侵蚀。     

红枫湖后午沉积物磷形态与生物有效磷的垂向分布及疏浚深度推算

以贵州红枫湖后午重污染沉积物为研究对象,对沉积物柱芯按每2cm分层,研究了沉积物中含水量、孔隙度、磷形态与生物可利用磷的垂向分布规律,并推算出污染沉积物的环保疏浚深度。结果表明,含水量和孔隙度在沉积物上部30cm内递减,30cm往下剧减。沉积物中不同磷形态、生物有效磷的垂向分布规律相似,分别在6～12cm和15～16cm两个层段出现了转折,在底部30cm后趋于稳定。沉积物表层16cm中NaOH-P和有机磷含量的剖面变化,反映了红枫湖近20年来水环境富营养化的演变过程。根据含量拐点法和环保疏浚经济成本的考虑,可将后午区域疏浚层的深度定为30cm。     

山区和平原连接处SF6试验及扩散规律研究

为更好了解污染物在复杂地形条件下的湍流扩散规律,2010年9月开展了一系列SF6示踪扩散试验,获取了SF6浓度数据,以此实验数据为基础,计算出SF6浓度分布在水平和垂直方向的扩散标准差、地面峰值浓度等参数,并与P-T-C扩散参数进行对比,总结得出了污染物在山区和平原连接处中性、稳定、强稳定等气象条件下湍流扩散规律。     

城市大气颗粒物背景值涵义及定值方法

城市大气颗粒物背景值的概念对防治城市大气颗粒物污染具有重要意义。城市大气颗粒物背景值不同于颗粒物本底值。本底值是指不受人类活动影响的自然条件下颗粒物的浓度值,而背景值是个相对值,其所在的环境条件有可能已经受到了环境污染。影响城市大气颗粒物背景值的因素主要包括两个方面:一是污染源,主要包括城市本地源排放和外来颗粒物,二是颗粒物扩散的天气和气象因素。将城市大气颗粒物的背景值定义为在一定时期内,由于城市本身的排放,城市大气环境中颗粒物的浓度水平。通过分析总结近年来人们对大气颗粒物垂直分布规律的研究,探讨了采用监测一定高度处大气颗粒物,结合气象因素确定城市环境空气中大气颗粒物背景值的方法。     

三峡澎溪河回水区消落带岸边土壤重金属污染分布特征

在对澎溪河回水区消落带及岸边土样品中重金属含量和样品理化性质测定的基础上,重点分析了该区域内重金属分布特征,并对重金属元素间的相关性展开研究.同时,应用地累积指数对研究区域污染现状进行评价.结果表明,消落带样品中Cu、Cr、Zn、As、Cd、Pb、Hg的平均含量分别为28.17、59.21、108.98、4.77、2.02、28.85、0.52mg·kg-1;岸边土样品中重金属的含量范围分别为22.32、54.90、98.05、7.87、0.77、22.97、0.94mg·kg-1.Cd是三峡库区污染较严重的重金属元素.相关性分析表明：在消落带样品中,Cd与Zn显著相关（p〈0.01）,Pb、Hg和Cu、As都存在显著的正相关关系,说明这4种重金属元素在接受外来污染时可能存在相似性;在岸边土样品中,Cd与Zn、Cr与Cu、As与Hg显著相关（p〈0.01）,Pb与Cu、Cr、Zn、Cd显著正相关,表明这几种重金属可能有着相似的来源.消落带样品重金属污染程度评价结果为：Cd〉Hg〉Zn〉Pb〉Cu〉As〉Cr,岸边土样品重金属污染程度评价结果为：Hg〉Cd〉Zn〉As〉Pb〉Cu〉Cr,Cd和Hg在个别站位达到了严重污染水平.消落带土壤受人为扰动后会成为水体的二次污染源,因此,消落带土壤重金属对水体的潜在影响不容忽视.